Leeds City Region

Sheffield City Region

The Humber

Birmingham and the Wider Urban Area

Kolkata, India

Lima-Callao, Peru

Johor Bahru and Pasir Gudang, Malaysia

Palembang, Indonesia

Green Growth in Chinese Cities

Recife, Brazil

Kigali, Rwanda

Leeds City Region

The Leeds City Region has a population of three million people and an economy worth £52 billion. Our research found that the total energy bill for the city region was £5bn – meaning that 10% of everything earned in the local economy was spent on energy. With ‘business as usual’ trends, including the impacts of projected energy price increases and the increasing availability of lower carbon electricity in the UK, we forecast that by 2022 carbon emissions would fall by 23%. Based on an evaluation of the performance and scope for deployment of 125 energy efficiency, small scale renewable and low carbon measures across the domestic, commercial, industrial and transport sectors in the city region, we forecast that the city region could cut its energy bills by £1.2 billion (1.6% of city-level GDP) and its carbon emissions by 36% a year. By just exploiting the cost effective measures that would pay for themselves of commercial terms, we also forecast that the city region could secure £4.9 billion in investments that would pay back in four years.

The most cost-effective measures identified for the Leeds City Region are more efficient burners in industry, energy management of electronic goods and park and ride schemes. The most carbon-effective measures identified are renewable heat in industry, biofuels in transport, reducing household heating by 1˚C and air source heat pumps in the domestic sector.

Our research has been used to underpin the development of a low carbon economy strategy and as the basis for substantial investments in low carbon measures across the city region. It also informed the guidance for local authorities issued by the UK Committee on Climate Change.

Our research was conducted in partnership with the Stockholm Environment Institute at the University of York and Quantum Strategy and Technology and with support from the Department for Energy and Climate Change, the Leeds City Region, the Centre for Low Carbon Futures, the UK Committee on Climate Change and the ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy.

Published 2012.

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  • The Economics of Low Carbon Cities: A Mini-Stern Review for the Leeds City Region

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Sheffield City Region

The Sheffield City Region has a population of 1.8 million people and an economy worth £26 billion. Our research found that the total energy bill for the city region was £3.4 billion – meaning that 13% of everything earned in the local economy was spent on energy. With ‘business as usual’ trends including the impacts of energy price increases and the provision of lower carbon electrivity in the UK, we forecast that by 2020 energy bills would rise by £1.18 billion and carbon emissions would fall by 28%. Based on an evaluation of the performance and scope for deployment of 123 energy efficiency, small scale renewable and low carbon measures across the domestic, commercial, industrial and transport sectors in the city region, we forecast that the city region could cut its energy bills by £723 million (2% of city-level GDP) and its carbon emissions by 40% a year. By just exploiting the cost effective measures that would pay for themselves of commercial terms, we also forecast that the city region could secure £3.7 billion in investments that would pay back in five years.

The most cost-effective measures identified for the Sheffield City Region are more efficient industrial burners, park and ride schemes and energy management of electronic goods. The most carbon-effective measures identified are use of renewable heat in industry, biofuels in transport, reducing household heating by 1˚C and air source heat pumps in the domestic sectors.

Our research has been used to underpin the re-launch of the economic masterplan for Sheffield and as support for low carbon economy policies from the Local Enterprise Partnership.

Our research was conducted in partnership with the Stockholm Environment Institute at the University of York and Quantum Strategy and Technology the Centre for Low Carbon Futures and the ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy.

Published 2013.

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  • Economics of Low Carbon Cities: A Mini-Stern Review for the Sheffield City Region

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The Humber

The Humber area has a population of nearly one million people and an economy worth £14 billion. Our research found that the total energy bill for the city region was £2.5 billion – meaning that nearly 18% of everything earned in the local economy was spent on energy. With ‘business as usual’ trends, including the impacts of projected energy price increases and the increasing availability of lower carbon electricity in the UK, we forecast that by 2020 energy bills will rise by £410 billion and that carbon emissions would fall by 22%. Based on an evaluation of the performance and scope for deployment of 123 energy efficiency, small scale renewable and low carbon measures across the domestic, commercial, industrial and transport sectors in the city region, we forecast that the city region could cut its energy bills by £293 million (2% of city-level GDP) and its carbon emissions by 27% a year. By just exploiting the cost effective measures that would pay for themselves of commercial terms, we also forecast that the city region could secure £1.8 billion in investments that would pay back in less than five years.

The most cost-effective measures identified for the Humber are more efficient burners, park and ride schemes and bus priority and quality enhancements. The most carbon-effective measures identified are use of renewable heat in industry, the adoption of biofuels and hybrid vehicles, reducing household heating by 1˚C and the adoption of air source heat pumps in the domestic sector.

Our research was conducted in partnership with the Stockholm Environment Institute at the University of York and Quantum Strategy and Technology the Centre for Low Carbon Futures and the ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy.

Published 2013.

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  • Economics of Low Carbon Cities: A Mini-Stern Review for the Humber

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Birmingham and the Wider Urban Area

Birmingham and the Wider Urban Area has a population of nearly three million people and an economy worth £50 billion. Our research found that the total energy bill for the city region was £5.1bn – meaning that 10% of everything earned in the local economy was spent on energy. With ‘business as usual’ trends including the impacts of projected energy price increases and the increasing availability of lower carbon electricity in the UK, we forecast that by 2020 energy bills would rise by £490 million and that carbon emissions would fall by 35%. Based on an evaluation of the performance and scope for deployment of 123 energy efficiency, small scale renewable and low carbon measures across the domestic, commercial, industrial and transport sectors in the city region, we forecast that the city region could cut its energy bills by £954 million (2.3% of city-level GDP) and its carbon emissions by 46% by 2022. By just exploiting the cost effective measures that would pay for themselves of commercial terms, we also forecast that the city region could secure £3.6 billion in investments that would pay back in 3.4 years.

The most cost-effective measures identified for Birmingham and the wider urban area are more efficient burners, refrigeration and air conditioning systems in industry and energy management of vending machines. The most carbon-effective measures identified are use of renewable heat in industry, biofuels and hybrid vehicles in transport and reducing household heating by 1˚C.

Our research has been used to inform the low carbon activities of the new Green Commission for Birmingham.

Our research was conducted in partnership with the University of Birmingham, the Stockholm Environment Institute at the University of York and Quantum Strategy and Technology with the support of the Centre for Low Carbon Futures, the ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy and the EPSRC.

Published 2013

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  • Economics of Low Carbon Cities: A Mini-Stern Review for Birmingham and the Wider Urban Area

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Kolkata, India

The Kolkata Metropolitan Area has a population of over 14 million and an economy worth INR 1.84 trillion (USD 31.5 billion) in 2014. The preliminary results of our research indicate that the total energy bill for the city was INR 169.2 billion (USD 2.9 billion) – meaning that 9.1% of everything earned in the local economy is spent on energy. With ‘business as usual’ trends, we forecast that by 2025 energy use would rise by 44.1%, energy bills by 111.6% and carbon emissions by 54.0%. Based on an evaluation of the performance and scope for deployment of energy efficiency, small scale renewable and low carbon measures across the domestic, commercial, industrial, transport and waste sectors in the city, we forecast that Kolkata could cut its energy bill by INR 30.4 billion (USD 520.7 million) and its carbon emissions by 20.7% by 2025. By just exploiting the cost effective measures that would pay for themselves of commercial terms, we also forecast that Kolkata could secure INR 119.3 billion in investments that would pay back in 3.9 years.

The most cost-effective measures identified for Kolkata are parking demand management and vehicle efficiency standards in the transport sector, waste heat recovery in industry, behavioural change in buildings and coal retrofits in the electricity sector. The most carbon-effective measures include the adoption of building efficiency standards, energy efficient air conditioners, gasification of waste and coal retrofits and renewable technologies in the electricity generation sector.

Our research was conducted in partnership with Jadavpur University with support from the Centre for Low Carbon Futures, the ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy and the British Deputy High Commission for India.

Published 2014.

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  • The Economics of Low Carbon Cities: Kolkata, India

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Lima-Callao, Peru

The Lima-Callao area has a population of 9 million and an economy worth US$66 billion in 2014. The preliminary results of our research indicate that the total energy bill for the city was US$4.7 billion and that the bill for waste and water was US$0.5 billion – meaning that 8% of everything earned in the local economy was spent on energy, water and waste. With ‘business as usual’ trends, we forecast that by 2030 energy use would rise by 78%, energy bills by 128% and that carbon emissions would rise by 82%. 

Based on an evaluation of the performance and scope for deployment of energy efficiency, small-scale renewable and low carbon measures across the domestic, commercial, industrial, transport and waste sectors in the city, we forecast that Lima-Callao could cut its energy bill by US$2.1 billion and its carbon emissions by 19% by 2030. By just exploiting the cost-effective measures that would pay for themselves on commercial terms, we forecast that Lima-Callao could secure US$5.1 billion in investments that would pay back in 2.4 years.

The most cost-effective measures identified for Lima-Callao are fuel switching from LPG to natural gas in the residential sector, a teleworking campaign and CNG retrofit for taxis in the transport sector and green building standards in the commercial sector. The most carbon-effective measures include an expansion of geothermal facilities in the electricity sector, congestion tolls in the transport sector, more efficient lighting in the residential sector and landfill gas utilisation in the waste sector.

Our research is conducted in partnership with the Pontifical Catholic University of Peru (PUCP) and the National Agrarian University (UNALM) and with support from the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, the Inter-American Development Bank, the Peruvian Ministry of Environment (MINAM), the Metropolitan Government of Lima, the Centre for Low Carbon Futures and the ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy.

Published 2014.

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  • The Economics of Low Carbon, Climate Resilient Cities: Lima-Callao, Peru

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Johor Bahru and Pasir Gudang, Malaysia

Johor Bahru and Pasir Gudang have a combined population of 1.8 million and an economy worth RM89.0 billion (US$26.9 billion). Our research found that the total energy bill for the city was RM13.5 billion (US$4.1 billion) – meaning that 15.2% of everything earned in the local economy is spent on energy. With ‘business as usual’ trends, including rapid growth in the population, projected energy price increases and rising carbon intensity of electricity, we forecast that by 2025 energy bills will increase by 139.9% and carbon emissions would increase 83.8% relative to 2014 levels.

Based on an evaluation of the performance and scope for deployment of 128 energy efficiency, small-scale renewable and low carbon measures across the electricity, commercial, domestic, industrial, transport and waste sectors, we forecast that Johor Bahru and Pasir Gudang could cut their energy bills by RM2.6 billion (US$0.77 billion) and reduce emissions by 24.2% relative to business as usual levels by exploiting the cost-effective measures that would pay for themselves in commercial terms. We calculate that, in this scenario, the cities could secure investments worth RM3.3 billion (US$1.0 billion) that would pay back in 1.3 years. By re-investing the returns from these investments in low carbon measures, Johor Bahru and Pasir Gudang could reduce their energy bills by RM2.7 billion (US$0.83 billion) and carbon emissions by 45.4% relative to business as usual levels at no net cost to the cities. 

Our research is conducted in partnership with the Iskandar Regional Development Authority (IRDA) and Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), and  is supported by the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office, the Centre for Low Carbon Futures and the ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy.

Published in 2014.

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  • The Economics of Low Carbon Cities: Johor Bahru and Pasir Gudang, Malaysia (Executive Summary - English)

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  • Ekonomi Bandar Rendah Karbon: Johor Bahru dan Pasir Gudang, Malaysia (Ringkasan Eksekutif - Bahasa Malaysia)

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  • The Economics of Low Carbon Cities: Johor Bahru and Pasir Gudang, Malaysia

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  • Policy Options for Low Carbon Cities: Johor Bahru and Pasir Gudang, Malaysia

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Palembang, Indonesia

Palembang has a population of 1.5 million and an economy worth IDR 54 trillion (US$4.59 billion). Our research found that the total energy bill for the city was IDR 10.1 trillion (US$857.2 million) - meaning that 18.7% of everything earned in the local economy is spent on energy. With 'business as usual trends' including rapid population growth, projected energy price increases and rising carbon intensity of electricity, we forecast that energy bills will increase by 155.1% and carbon emissions by 164.6% by 2025, relative to 2014 levels.

Based on an evaluation of the performance and scope for deployment of 130 energy efficiency, renewable energy and low carbon measures across the electricity, commercial, domestic, industrial, transport and waste sectors, we forecast that Palembang could cut its energy bills by IDR 5.1 trillion (US$436.8 million) and reduce emissions by 24.1% relative to business as usual levels by exploiting cost-effective measures that would pay for themselves on commercial terms. We calculate that, in this scenario, the city could secure investments worth IDR 4.8 trillion (US$405.6 million) that would pay back in less than one year. By re-investing the returns from these investments in low carbon measures, Palembang could reduce its energy bills by IDR5.5 trillion (US$467.4 million) and carbon emissions by 28.3% by 2025, relative to 2014 levels, at no net cost to the city.

Our research is conducted in partnership with the Indonesian Ministry of Transport and is supported by the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office, the Centre for Low Carbon Futures and the ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy.

Published in 2014.

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  • The Economics of Low Carbon Cities: Palembang, Indonesia

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  • The Economics of Low Carbon Cities: Palembang, Indonesia (Executive Summary - English)

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  • Ekonomi Kota Rendah Karbon: Palembang, Indonesia (Ringkasan Eksekutif - Bahasa Indonesia)

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Green Growth in Chinese Cities

Over the coming years, growth, urbanisation and their resulting emissions will cement the importance of Chinese cities in particular in the international climate-policy picture. Yet cities across China are already pursuing greener futures by incorporating environmental objectives into their economic strategies. In this project we ask how are they doing so, how much is being achieved and what can be learned? Given the great heterogeneity of Chinese cities, we select a relatively large sample of 20 or more cities to study, representing different stages of development. From these, we will select a smaller number (i.e. five) to work with to map the detail of their green-growth strategies and the processes through which the agenda is operationalised. As well as mapping institutional conditions and the levels and forms of influence that can be exerted, the project will evaluate policy-learning processes at multiple scales (national, provincial, city-region and city) and assess the outcomes of green-growth initiatives already underway.

Starting in 2014, our research is conducted in partnership with Tsinghua University with support from the ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy and the Chinese National Natural Science Foundation.

Recife, Brazil

Recife has a population of 1.5 million and an economy worth BRL 35.60 billion (US$16.55 billion). Our research found that the total energy bill for the city was BRL 3.40 billion (US$1.45 billion) - meaning that 8.7% of everything earned in the local economy is spent on energy. With 'business as usual trends' including rapid population growth, projected energy price increases and rising carbon intensity of electricity, we forecast that energy bills will increase by 174.2% and carbon emissions by 79.1% by 2030, relative to 2014 levels. This will mean that 12.1% of everything earned in the local economy will be spent on energy.

Based on an evaluation of the performance and scope for deployment of energy efficiency, renewable energy and low carbon measures across the commercial, residential, transport and waste sectors, we forecast that Recife could cut its energy bills by BRL 1.37 billion (USD 585.25 million) and reduce emissions by 24.3% relative to business as usual levels by exploiting cost-effective measures that would pay for themselves on commercial terms. We calculate that, in this scenario, the city could secure investments worth BRL 7.79 billion (US$3.32 billion) that would pay back in 5.7 years. By re-investing the returns from these investments in low carbon measures, Recife could reduce its energy bills by BRL 1.35 billion (US$575.01 million) and carbon emissions by 31.0% by 2030, relative to 2014 levels, at no net cost to the city.

Our research is conducted in partnership with ICLEI-Local Governments for Sustainability and Recife City Council. It is supported by the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office and the ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy.

Published in 2015.

 

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  • The Economics of Low Carbon Cities: Recife, Brazil

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  • Aspectos Econômicos das Cidades de Baixo Carbono: Recife, Brazil

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Kigali, Rwanda

Kigali has a population of 1.1 million and an economy worth RWF 2.0 trillion (USD 3.0 billion). Our research found that the total energy bill for the city was RWF 206.1 billion (USD 301.0 million), meaning that 10.1% of everything earned in the local economy is spent on energy. With 'business as usual' trends including rapid population growth, rising per capita incomes and projected energy price increases, we forecast that energy bills will increase by 249.7% and carbon emissions by 184.9% by 2032, relative to 2015 levels. This will mean that 7.7% of city-scale GDP will be spent on energy.

Based on an evaluation of the performance and scope for deployment of energy efficiency, renewable energy and low-carbon measures across the electricity, commercial, residential, transport and waste sectors, we forecast that Kigali could cut its energy bills by RWF 118.6 billion (USD 173.2 million) and reduce emissions by 39.0% - relative to business as usual levels - by exploiting cost-effective measures that would pay for themselves on commercial terms. We calculate that, in this scenario, the city could secure investments worth RWF 630.6 billion (USD 920.7 million) that would pay back in 5.3 years. By re-investing the returns from these investments in additional low-carbon measures, Kigali could reduce its energy bills by a total of RWF 138.8 billion (USD 202.6 million) and its carbon emissions by 42.6%, relative to 2015 levels, at no net cost to the city.

Our research was conducted in partnership with the Organisation for Social Science Research in Eastern and Southern Africa (OSSREA), and was supported by the International Growth Centre.

Published in 2016.

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  • The Economics of Low Carbon Cities: Kigali, Rwanda

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